There’s been scant polling in the district, but a June survey commissioned by her Democratic challenger, Jim Graves, found Bachmann with a dangerously narrow lead. “Bachmann’s unsuccessful bid for president had a clear and negative impact on her standing among voters in the new Minnesota 6 CD. She received low marks on both her job performance and personal favorability,” pollster Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner found. The survey found her leading Graves by just five points and under 50 percent, even though her name ID was almost 100 percent in the district and Graves is mostly obscure.
In an interview last month, Graves pointed out to Salon that Bachmann has benefited in the past two cycles from third-party challengers who have disproportionately syphoned votes from the Democratic candidate. Minnesota Public Radio political writer Bon Collins called Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson – who took over 10 percent of the vote in 2008 — “Michele Bachmann’s best friend” because he paved the way for her reelection. Bachmann won by just three points that year. In 2010, her margin was bigger, but it was a wave election for Republicans and Bachmann had managed to avoid major controversy ahead of the election. That year, Anderson, who ran again, took about 6 percent of the vote.
This year, there is no major third party candidate, giving Bachmann her first head-to-head race since her election. Tom Horner, a former gubernatorial candidate from the Independence Party, which has mostly gotten on board with Graves’ campaign, told the St. Cloud Times that the lack of a third candidate is significant. “I think that’s going to make a huge difference. It’s the opportunity to compare and contrast two candidates, head to head,” he said.
Add this in with the real possibility that Paul Ryan gets unseated (grown larger by his selection as the GOP VP candidate, which will inevitably take his attention away from the district), and the serious challenge faced by top hatemonger Steve King in a new swing district, and it’s entirely possible that the big Tea Party figures of this Congress could mostly be gone next year. Wonder what that would look like.
Steve B. asks the question of the election cycle:
I still have no idea why the GOP field is giving Romney a pass on health care. The former governor’s health care included an individual mandate forcing taxpayers to purchase insurance; it provided benefits to immigrants who entered the country illegally; and it covers abortion — and somehow, this hardly ever comes up in the middle of the GOP primary contest. A year ago, the right was saying Romney wouldn’t even be considered unless he renounced and apologized for his health care law, and now, it’s effectively become a non-issue.
Jonathan Bernstein recently argued that Romney’s GOP rivals are “blowing it.” I agree.
I don’t think this is a very hard question, but it’s not one with one simple answer. On the one hand, business plan candidates like Herman Cain have absolutely no reason to involve themselves in the cut-and-thrust of campaign politics, and probably a strong disincentive to slam the party’s likely candidate for 2012. If anything, such a thing complicates how they’re perceived and could make book deals and FOX gigs harder to come by. That alone is a fairly substantial chunk of the Republican contenders, one that includes Cain, Santorum, and probably Gingrich (though Gingrich now seems to think he’s for real). On the other hand, you have your fringe contingent that either prefers a different reality to the one we’ve got (i.e. Bachmann), or is far more interested in their own pet things than trying to play a role in mainstream debate (that’d be Ron Paul, and perhaps Gary Johnson too, though he’s pretty marginal). Ron Paul wants to bring back the gold standard and kill off the Federal Reserve. Gary Johnson wants to legalize pot. Bachmann wants to stop Barack Obama from surrendering to Uruguay. Their obsessions–which are admittedly of very different levels of merit–tend to crowd out issues that other people care about. And then there’s Perry (and Pawlenty, back when he was in), who have made some jabs at this but haven’t been willing to follow through with a vengeance. In fairness, Perry hasn’t yet made his move, and he might well slam Romney on health care closer to the Iowa Caucuses. So that’s the one proviso.
The one wild card here is the one I can’t figure out. Jon Huntsman has for some reason not made a fuss of this issue even though he’d probably do best with it. Political attacks’ effectiveness depends a lot upon the deliverer. Michele Bachmann saying that Obama is detached from reality counts for a lot less than, for example, were Romney to say it (though it still wouldn’t count for much, as it’s a banal attack). Given that, an attack on Romney’s health care system coming from a smart, mainstream, wonkish dude like Huntsman would go a lot further than from, say, Rick Santorum. Huntsman is the most like Romney in the field and stands to gain a lot by shaking loose Romney’s support. Admittedly, Huntsman used to support the mandate concept himself, but I seriously doubt Romney would be in a position to call Huntsman out for just one flip-flop. That would just open him up for Huntsman to strike back on the dozens of flip-flops on Romney’s record. It’s practically fool-proof. Why Huntsman hasn’t tried to turn this into his big issue baffles me, the political calculus for him to do so is strong, and striking this pose would elevate him among conservatives while not dooming him in a possible general election. I can only conclude that, even in a field of incompetence, Huntsman is a strikingly inept candidate, one of the least able to sense and exploit opportunities that is out there. Maybe he has some hidden reason for not doing so (perhaps he’s a closet Obamacare fan?), but from where I sit it looks like plain miscalculation, and he makes up a third contingent with Perry and the late for the campaign Pawlenty: the incompetents.
What this adds up to is a unique situation in which Romney’s biggest threat has been mostly ignored due to the unique structure of this year’s GOP field: you have a group of candidates that splits easily into three segments, the business plan types, the fringers, and the incompetents. These groups are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but Romneycare provides an interesting perspective on just how awful the Republican field is: the business planners lack the motive to attack, the fringers lack both the motive (and the opportunity, frequently), and the incompetents lack the smarts and determination to get it done. Why hasn’t Romney come under attack for inspiring the Affordable Care Act? Read the title of the post.
Some bad lip readers reveal what Michele Bachmann is really thinking about when she speaks:
…to hop across the Bay for this:
For those who’ve been looking for a chance to ask Republican Presidential Candidate and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann some questions about her enlightening views on HPV vaccinations and race without contributing their hard-earned pennies to the Tea Party campaign, here’s your chance. The Commonwealth Club has announced that Bachmann will be giving a lunch-time talk on October 20 entitled “The Revival of American Competitiveness.”
For a mere $10-25, you can bring a bag lunch (we suggest a nice onion-y tuna fish sandwich) and get a glimpse of just how bleak our future looks. Better yet, grab a front row seat for $30-$45.
Ironically, Bachmann’s campaign itself is in need of a renewal of competitiveness. So who better to give a speech like this? I’m probably not going to go, since I can’t morally justify supporting the Bachmann campaign even ironically. But my guess is that it turns out to be a mostly empty room, about half of which will turn out to be liberal agents provocateurs trying to make Bachmann look like an idiot by trying to get her to back up conspiracy theories about Ted Kennedy being an alien or the Moon landing being a fake by Ted Turner. And why not? She’s said crazier stuff than that.
Hors D’oeuvres
Tsarnaev going to go through the criminal justice system. The right choice, but somehow I knew the Administration would call this one right. This is one thing they’ve been both right and firm on in the past. (2 comments)I'll Say It Until I'm Blue In The Face
As we all know by now, you’re as likely to be injured in a terrorist attack as much as we are likely to ever suffer an appropriate reaction to a mass killing after 9/11. Just sayin’. (0 comments)The Obama Administration is threatening to veto SOPA/PIPA’s cousin CISPA. Much as I rag on those guys at times, they have a very good record on opposing these sorts of internet invasion bills, and I’m happy to give credit when it is due. (1 comments)Which One Are You -- Tim Conway or Don Knotts?
Via TPM, sounds like South Carolina’s Rollercoaster of Love is ratcheting up the incline o’perversity agin’:Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford must appear in court two days after running for a vacant congressional seat to answer a complaint that he trespassed at his ex-wife’s home, according to court documents acquired by The Associated Press on Tuesday. > more ... (0 comments)
Actual Living Pro-labor Republicans Sighted?
Given that the bill itself seems to be redundant–a bill requiring the NLRB to observe quorum rules?–to the extent that voting for it is essentially a slap at labor, the Republican no votes here are probably a legit accounting of which House Repubs aren’t completely antagonistic to labor. The number appears to be ten, though > more ... (4 comments)I honestly hadn’t given it too much thought, and was probably disposed against it just because of who was for it, but Emily makes a very strong case for why Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard ought to be released from prison. She argues that it makes sense on humanitarian and political grounds, and I agree with > more ... (0 comments)This Is What the Internets Were Made For
As much as I love WJHL’s article Witnesses: Man drove 90 mph with genitals hanging out the window (and with lines like:At over 90 miles per hour, he had his penis out [the window]… he was masturbating… and that’s when it got really, really bad. I wouldn’t look over any more, and I wrote his tag number down on my hand, which I believe he noticed, and he exited very quickly.
> more ... (0 comments)An unintentional libertarian anthem/meditation from Sully at the Dish:By then, the subtleties, the mixes of CBD and THC, the nuances of sativa and indica strains will all be turned by the genius of the free market into something quite marvelous. We will finally have made of this weed what was long made of the simple grape. And we will all be happier.
> more ... (0 comments)Jack Shafer says “Foreign Correspondents”: Pyongyang reliably remains defiant; talks have resumed or been proposed, canceled, or stalled, while a U.S. envoy seeks to lure the North back to those talks to restart the dialog; North Korea is bluffing, blustering, or is engaging in brinksmanship; tensions are grim, rising, or growing—but rarely reduced, probably because > more ... (0 comments)Not Too Tired To Fight, Just Too Bored This Time
If it’s okay with you, I’m just going to take a powder on this one. It’s only minimally news, we knew that Obama wants to cut “entitlements” already, only now he’s just putting it in an official document that is going to be duly ignored by Paul Ryan in a matter of months. The article > more ... (0 comments)Plebs is coming to ITV: httpv://youtu.be/xlm1VAN4XXQ Somewhat tangentially, I ran across a Cicero quote just recently impuning the moral fiber of the poor; it reminded me of our own current and continuing struggle with the morality of poverty: Gaius Gracchus passed a grain law: this delighted the plebs, for an abundance of food could now be had > more ... (0 comments)What's the average amount of times a smartphone user visits Facebook per day?
Fourteen. I’m a little under that, with zero on most days. Really, Facebook is only still useful to me as a way of handling event correspondence, which coupled with the (fairly nominal but needless and annoying) social effects of closing my account is the reason why I still have it. In a word, inertia. Y’all > more ... (2 comments)I Am Gonna Get Pranked *Hard* Come April Fool's Day
What with one thing or another — brain cells giving their final, weak-ass fuck; supposed leaders of society running around like they lost their damn minds; dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria — I find I can no longer tell what’s an actual news story anymore, and what’s some made-up middle-school fart-type-joke. Via the Raw > more ... (2 comments)Ketchikan’s KRBD recently broadcast a story about Congressman Don Young (R-AK). In one segment, Young waxed nostalgic about Tha Browns of his youth: My father had a ranch. We used to hire 50 to 60 wetbacks to pick tomatoes, you know. It takes two people to pick the same tomatoes now. It’s all done by machine. Today’s > more ... (0 comments)New Hampshire is moving forward with repeal of the state Stand Your Ground law. Of course, New Hampshire is a “blue” state generally. But it’s quite gun-friendly, with a pronounced libertarian ethos. So this could be a somewhat risky move, and if you read the article, it looks like the paranoiac NRA-loving assholes are in rare > more ... (0 comments)You know what pisses me off? Any jibber jabber at SCOTUS about hurting the fee fees of backward states like Alabama. The question is whether legislating against gays marrying (like legislating against different races marrying) violates equal protection. None of this has anything to do with whether southern governors will have a Sad, or > more ... (1 comments)Recent Trackbacks
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