Currently viewing the tag: "Afghanistan"

John Cole turned me onto this:

A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.

The weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons, are being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the officials said.

It’s difficult to know from the article exactly what’s going on here, but it sure looks as though we’re again putting our hands where they don’t belong.

I think the interesting part of Obama’s Middle Eastern policy is how it’s more a refactoring, than a rebooting, of Bush’s. Refactoring, in case you don’t know, is a software term meaning that you change the code to something else that does basically the same thing. For example, maybe you change something in favor of a more elegant design, but you want to preserve the functionality. Obama ended the U.S. War in Iraq, and he says he intends to end the U.S. War in Afghanistan next year. I believe him. But he has shown no intention of ending the U.S. War in the Middle East, and I suspect that Republicans were relatively silent about the former two developments because Obama has substantially increased the level of militarism outside of these specific theaters. I suspect that the medium-range liberal freakout over the Times’s Kill List story a few weeks back had a lot to do with this–the idea that Obama will end the specific, declared, Congressionally-approved wars we stupidly decided to fight, while continuing the non-approved, shadier, morally-ambiguous activities that have become so prevalent in the past three years. And that if soldiers aren’t dying, nobody will pay much attention. Refactoring, simply put.

Obama’s tactics are quite different from Bush’s, as are some of his assumptions. Bush blithely sent troops in harms way based on hunches, while Obama seems deeply resistant to doing so. Of course, doing this is also politically much more perilous. So drones, starting private little wars, and relying on air power have become more prevalent weapons in accomplishing the big strategy here. But the strategy is unchanged–some combination of regime change where possible/applicable, blowback-inducing violence to try to take out the bad guys, all of which seems geared toward transmitting some sort of ideal that simply won’t take if helped along by foreign intervention. Of all the Arab Spring uprisings, the most successful has been Tunisia, in which America had no role. The least successful was Libya, in which America had the most significant role. The jury is still out on Egypt, though it seems unlikely that they’ll blaze a new, liberal trail in the Middle East at this point. Obama seems to have surrendered the realpolitik that he initially offered, in exchange for the same failed redraw-the-map schemes that the Bush Administration failed to implement. I have no idea why this occurred, perhaps the impulse to just do something is irresistible to a domestically-stymied chief executive, especially if all these grand visions seem so achievable.

Since everyone’s attention has been fixed on flexibilitygate and the Supreme Court, it kinda-sorta slipped through the cracks that basically nobody supports the Afghan War anymore. At this point, we really have to see how many voters’ summed-up opinions are worth that of practically the entire military establishment, who have been incredibly fixated on this conflict due putatively to al-Qaeda presence in the Af-Pak region (at least according to Bob Woodward’s Obama’s Wars). Who knows at this point. I think that the basic point here is that, while it’s somewhat less immediately deadly, Afghanistan increasingly is our Vietnam, driven by a small group of bipartisan elites and military brass who are waging the war because their assumptions about the enemy seem to dictate they should, and the only people on the ground who back it are Republican hawks who only care about “victory,” not so much about whether the goals make sense and are met.
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Apparently our strategy for the area is completely fucked now. Perhaps it is time to bring our troops home.
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You’ve probably heard the news that the Administration is negotiating with the Taliban to end the Afghan War. On the whole, I think this is a very good thing. Yeah, they’re scumbags. We all know that. But thanks to a number of reasons (read: seven years of ineptitude from the Bush Administration), they’re there and they’re not going away, and we can’t defeat them without a WWII-level deployment (and probably not even then). I truly wish Bush had been happy with his one war and had focused like a laser on wiping out the Taliban back when he could, but he didn’t and here we are. And given these parameters, the best case scenario is some kind of negotiated compromise to end the fighting. The media doesn’t seem to know what the big issues are–apparently the Administration has insisted on a few preconditions related to human rights and accepting the Afghan Constitution–and so it’s too early to tell if the ultimate agreement will be any good (or if it’s likely). Still, the prospect of ending the war quickly is tempting, and I could see it being a sleeper issue against Mitt Romney, who has argued many times that we should basically stay in Afghanistan forever. Talk about a good possible contrast for November…

This, though, is another interesting step:

Iran has said it has agreed to talks with six world powers on its controversial nuclear programme, days after the UN confirmed Tehran was producing 20% enriched uranium.

Visiting Turkey, parliament speaker Ali Larijani said he had accepted Ankara’s offer to try to restart the talks.

Negotiations have stalled since a meeting in Istanbul a year ago.

I’m absolutely certain that this will bring up another round of Republican hawks spreading alarmism, accompanied by the public roundly ignoring them and favoring negotiations 2-to-1 in the polls. Still, it’s an interesting situation, and it’s possible that Iran might actually want a deal. Now that they can produce 20% enriched uranium, they have some amount of leverage to get a deal to their liking. And they have some things they definitely want, like lifting of the embargo. Of course, if the hawks are correct and Iran really cares for nothing more than wiping out Israel, they wouldn’t trade anything for their ability to have nuclear weapons, though if that were the case why waste time on discussions? I guess we’ll find out if Iran hawks know what they’re talking about (who wants odds?). In any event, after the recent threats against the Strait of Hormuz, it’s a much better sign, and since both sides have things that they really want and have leverage over the other, who knows?

It’s too early to tell if any of this will go anywhere, but it’s something to hope for. And it’s worth remembering that nothing would come of either in a Romney Administration. I can only hope his obnoxious hawkishness wears poorly with the electorate, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it diminishes once the primary contests are over. I hope Obama makes the most of these chances, and successful diplomacy would help build on one of his strengths, and whatever risk needs to be taken is worth it.

Hey all, I foresee a heavy work day today, so I’ll put out some crumbs and hopefully I’ll be able to get you something a bit more substantial later today:
  • Paul Ryan is the third most unpopular Republican in the country, behind Palin and Gingrich. I hereby and immediately endorse a Paul Ryan presidential run.
  • Much as I’d love to see Dutch hatemonger Geert Wilders in prison, I’m sort of relieved he didn’t get convicted of hate speech charges. I don’t want this bozo to become a martyr, and I don’t really think he said anything that actually merits legal punishment. Personally, I’d rather see him go to jail for child molestation or something like that to ruin his reputation, though I have no idea if he’s done anything like that, it would be optimal in terms of tainting his message.
  • Kevin Drum is wrong. People don’t believe that spending and tax cuts will fix the economy just because Republicans say so. They believe it because high-profile Democrats, up to and including President Obama and Secretary Geithner, say the exact same thing too. Not necessarily coupled together like that, but come on…I can’t tell you how many times I’ve nearly vomited when one of those guys has said that a debt deal will improve the economy. HOW?!
  • Umm…this is probably not good, though I’ve learned not to live and die on every twist and turn of a policy negotiation. Fucking health care reform nearly killed me a dozen times at least.
  • This critique of Obama’s Afghanistan speech is all sorts o’ wrong. “Indeed, never before in American history have the exigencies of war and national security been more subordinated to a president’s perceived political needs than right now…” Please see Nixon, Richard M. “What we do propose is that we confront evil when and where we can, and always when it threatens the American national interest.” Except for when that evil pops up in an Asian or African country of limited strategic importance, eh? As for Afghanistan, the past ten years have proven us incapable of defeating the “evil” there. Not asserted at all in this critique: that we have anything to gain from a maximalist Afghan strategy, or even any sustained presence there at all. After all, there is more than one way to confront evil, though others require some measure of creativity.

Looks like the Afghanistan “surge” will be ending soon enough, and the Administration is very enthusiastic about cutting a deal with the Taliban to end the conflict there. Since I beat up on Obama over the inscrutably dumb decision to get involved in Libya–seriously, it makes less sense the more I think about it–I figure I should highlight the good things in the interest of fairness. The economy is likely to experience only modest gains over the next year and a half, but if Obama manages to get us out of both Iraq and Afghanistan, my guess is that he’ll be in pretty solid shape for another term.

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FWIW, the NY Times reports that the Taliban have hit a bit of a rough patch in Afghanistan. This isn’t administration rhetoric about “last throes” or anything like that, and it does seem like we’ve had some success in arresting/killing some bad guys in a way that’s trickled down a bit. What it will mean, I don’t know. But I figured it was worth noting developments in another of our many current wars.
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