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How do you deal with stupidity this severe?

The Trump backers I sampled at random all thought the election could be stolen… Connie Jagger reasoned that a Trump defeat would necessarily mean a stolen election because Trump’s crowds are bigger than Clinton’s.

This fallacy – that the winner is determined by crowd size rather than the 125 million ballots cast — makes Trump backers think a legitimate Clinton victory is impossible. “Trump in trouble? 10,000 people in Jacksonville!!!!” somebody named Eric Swenson emailed me Thursday. “Pathetic media, corrupt to the core.”


The irony is that Antonio Sabato, Jr.* is probably actually going to see his career improve as a result of lying about the president’s religion and acting like he’s some sort of martyr of the Christian Right even though, as Sean O’Neal notes, his career dried up about fifteen years ago and two weeks is quite a short period of time to organize a blacklist. But of course he’ll easily find work in the burgeoning Christian film industry, for which this whole thing was probably just an audition all along. Look for him to star in the next film in the God’s Not Dead franchise. He’ll be among the top five most loathsome humans in it for sure.

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Now that Trump is getting dominated in the polls and seemingly entering a tailspin with no way out, I have to admit that I’m afraid he’s going to have a heart attack or something and they’ll stick Rubio in.

Then again, there’s no particular reason to think that Rubio could rein in what Trump has created. He is a useless glamour boy.

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Today’s 538 NowCast:


As our esteemed (and sorely missed) contributor Rupert Psmith wrote elsewhere:

How bad a week does Trump need to have to push the 538 “Now-cast” to Clinton victory 100%? We may find out soon.

Update:  This McClatchy poll is pretty severe.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Republican Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll…   Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men – while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.  Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month…

Men had been the bedrock of Trump support. Last month, he was up by 14 percentage points among men; he’s now down 8.  Clinton remains strong with women, among whom she holds a 20-point advantage…  Trump collapsed almost everywhere that he’d built decent support. Even among white voters, a demographic that has favored Republican White House candidates in recent elections.


I’m gonna miss Obama.  A lot. Here he is today opining on Trump’s recent “vote rigging” bullshit.


Not all that surprising that the Trump denouncers so far have been former Republican candidates, staffers and officeholders (and also, to be fair, Republican Congressman Charlie Dent, who has shown some political courage in the past). They’re certainly getting media attention that they wouldn’t otherwise get–the only other way Meg Whitman could get this much attention would be to waste another $150 million running for office again. Not that I doubt their sincerity but ultimately the likes of Gordon Humphrey don’t matter much outside their home states, at best. But the state of the media is such that they can have a moment now, which is fine, I suppose.

My guess is that there won’t be too many current, elected, running-for-reelection Republicans who do this. Certainly not Paul Ryan or anyone like that. Admittedly, standing pat and remaining diffident toward Trump isn’t a great option, and if the poll numbers continue to worsen (possible!) and Trump refuses to let up with his shtick (very likely!), this is essentially death by a thousand cuts, driven by the questionable notion that downballot races can be neatly disentangled from national factors. In other words, the Republicans’ strategy is running the Democrats’ failed 2010 and 2014 midterm strategy. Think about that. The irony: you think they of all people would understand the pitfalls of that. On the other hand, top Republicans actually cutting Trump loose could have all sorts of ramifications: conservative media gabbers blaming them for torpedoing Trump (untrue but undeniably truthy), Trump retaliating by instructing his supporters not to vote for these folks, and a general impression of their opportunism that could weaken any potential gains to be made from dumping Trump. Seems like the very definition of the no-win scenario. If I had to choose, the latter choice–just ripping off the band-aid, come what may–would be my choice. Sure, it’s too late to seem principled, but at least it’s easier to live with yourself. But it’s higher risk, and I’d bet on “just hoping to be saved by events somehow” and eating a small daily ration of Trump shit as the ultimate choice there.

Regardless of what happens, I bet that Paul Ryan will still be regarded by the press as a sober, serious, responsible statesman by the mainstream media should Trump lose. If you think that’s crazy, remember that giving the world Sarah Palin did nothing to John McCain’s standing with those people. And they’ll need “moderate” and “rational” Republicans more than ever after a Trump loss.

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Sociopaths.  Every one of them.

The Republican challenging House Speaker Paul Ryan said this week that the US should debate deporting all Muslims from the country.

“I’m suggesting we have a discussion about it. That’s for sure,” Paul Nehlen said on 560 AM’s “Morning Answer” in Chicago, when asked whether he would support deporting every Muslim from the country. “I am absolutely suggesting we figure out how do we, we — here’s what we should be doing. We should be monitoring every mosque. We should be monitoring all social media.”