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Dogs and cats, living together.  Mass hysteria.  I have no words

Aaaaaaaaaand here they are!


Create your own map here.

Wisconsin is going to be the tricky one–pretty much everything says it’s a complete tie, but Burke has made exactly the sort of economic argument that should give her the tiniest of edges with undecided voters. Kansas has been pretty much the most stable race nationwide in terms of polling–virtually every poll for months has given challenger Paul Davis a 4-5 point advantage over Gov. Brownback–and I expect the margin to just about reflect that. It will be just as much of an embarrassment as the GOP’s win in Massachusetts, unfortunately. The fault, dear reader, lies not in Martha Coakley’s stars but in herself: she ran a credible campaign this time, but can’t change being a machine pol in a state that has the habit of voting for the most liberal, non-machine candidate in gubernatorial elections, whether that is the Republican candidate or Deval Patrick. For no other office do Massachusetts voters seem to mind voting party line. However, as we continue to see, the MA Dem establishment does nothing to fix this problem. I can already see Charlie Baker being the goddamn Mitt Romney of the 2020s.

What else? Georgia goes to a runoff. Dems push out Paul LePage thanks to the eleventh-hour maneuvering by Angus King and others. Michigan falls due to partisan lean, and Rick Snyder’s increasingly threadbare moderation act. Alaska is crazy, as there’s a very good chance that the GOP Governor loses because all available ad time was taken up by the state’s U.S. Senate contest. I also see Crist winning in Florida, and unpopular Democratic governors nevertheless winning in Illinois and Connecticut. Arizona remains the most unsettled because of how little polling has been done of the race, though a lean-R seems appropriate. Ultimately, if all this happens the Democrats will wind up with half of the nation’s governorships, with a shot at another in runoffs.

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Here’s my take on how the Senate elections go:

2014 Senate


Recent polls do seem to indicate movement toward Braley in Iowa and (much more dramatically) toward Begich in Alaska, and I’m not buying the polls of Colorado as most seem to be modeling a 2010 style turnout (or even worse than that in some cases) in a different year with a different (i.e. vote by mail) system. I predict that both Louisiana and Georgia go to runoffs, and Kansas and Kentucky are the only ones that I’m really conflicted about. Probably tilted by the slightest margins to the GOP in both, but McConnell could really lose I think. In any event it will not matter if this all comes to pass, in terms of Senate control. Follow the link to play around with the map. Heck, make your own. It’s fun!

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This is a propos of nothing in particular, but just in general, I really, really hope that by 2016 unemployment is sufficiently low that we don’t have to have a whole election where everybody promises jobs. It’s all lies, frankly. The right’s theory is basically that, by plying rich folks with huge tax cuts and other giveaways (and of course the other goodies, deregulation and the rest), they’ll respond by creating jobs. This is not merely ridiculous but absurd, as anyone who has ever worked in the private sector knows, businesses spend most of their time trying to cut jobs. Not even attacking it so much as saying this is the way it is: if you decide that government has no real role to play in protecting peoples’ jobs in general (and we don’t), then you have to accept that businesses will do all they can to cut them. It’s the bargain we’ve chosen to make as a society, plain and simple. Giving them more money has little to do with anything, it’s an answer to some other question altogether. On the other hand, Democrats have in the past had a very successful way of creating jobs through direct federal employment of the unemployed, but for many political reasons they are extremely reluctant to do this now. Even after 2008 with huge majorities in Congress and wide latitude to make economic policy, this was not really considered. And at this point, even the basic principle of stimulus is politically impossible at the federal level. So the answer has to follow the question indirectly, by growing the economy, or symbolically, with stuff like incentives to hire veterans. But the growth option has been stymied by the austerity regime we got in the Budget Control Act (i.e. the debt ceiling), as well as the Obama Administration’s puzzling unwillingness to name people to the Federal Reserve Board. I don’t even know if the Administration has cast the answer as being basically about growth. So even though this is still a big issue, neither party really has much of an answer here. So I can only hope that it improves despite our best efforts, so we can talk about something else.

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I’ve been meaning to write about this piece from a while back that argues against devolution. It’s a bit odd. For one thing, the two examples seem to confuse the very different ideas of devolution and secession. Having the blue states become part of Canada would not be an example of devolution, but one of secession. (So, for that matter, was the proposed Scottish referendum. Which failed in part because of promises of greater devolution.) While there are some domestic liberals who do favor secession (there’s a decent percentage in Vermont, at least), very few favor devolution (which is, after all, just a fancy word for enhanced federalism/less central control) so far as I can tell. Nearly all prefer federal to state power, and my guess is that post-2010, there would be significantly more liberal support for a unitary state (i.e. one without states) than an enhancement of the powers of individual states. The polling on this isn’t there but my guess is that it would be 3-to-1 with the public at least, and nearly unanimous among influential liberals. In any event, there has been zero support for the various devolutionary approaches that have been proposed in the past couple of years, such as block-granting Medicare. So the article comes off as baffling, arguing against a more-federalist liberalism that doesn’t seem to exist in any significant way, and has nothing to do with the specific examples raised.

A more relevant argument would have opposed the more provably real phenomenon of liberal secessionism. I don’t favor such an approach at this time, but it’s conceivable that at some point in the future, progressives might find it more enticing to create separate, smaller countries that could be enclaves of leftist politics. It’s not likely in the immediate future, but this country’s longstanding and ironic animus toward “bigness” could provide the basis for such a move, and if you disagree, then why is it that the first step in demonizing anything necessitates affixing the word “big” to it. You know, big government, big labor, big tobacco, big business, etc. I would actually be interested in reading some serious liberal arguments for and against this approach–my guess is that it would revolve around the anti-side arguing against hanging red-state minority members out to dry and appeals to mythos, and the pro-side invoking the lack of responsiveness of a very distant federal government and media as well as the poor people in blue states that should also be considered.

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Ed Kilgore’s post on a particularly hackish National Journal profile of Joni Ernst brings to mind the question of why specific Republicans wind up becoming media darlings, while others do not. Sometimes it makes sense: John McCain is a very limited political talent, but as someone who has lifelong training in dealing with elites in the military and political worlds, it’s not surprising he has a very good understanding of how to cultivate them. But I have no idea why Joni Ernst has managed to enjoy such laughably favorable coverage or, conversely, what Bruce Braley has done to merit such poor coverage. I guess the media would rather tell the story of a plainspoken farmer and soldier–a veritable Cincinatus!–rising to power than a former trial lawyer who goes for the capillary and commits gaffes. And just off the top of my head, I can see why the media was more interested in pumping up truck-ridin’, nude photo-posing bad boy Scott Brown over a dull underachiever like Martha Coakley. Or, the ultimate example, plainspoken “outsider” George W. Bush over boring, sweaty Al Gore. But placing drama and narrative over substance is, while understandable, utterly unacceptable, and it happens often enough that Democrats should do everything they can to flag it when it occurs.

Another possible catchphrase: No rules, just right. Oh wait, damn it, a steakhouse took that.

In this profile of embattled, unimpressive freshman Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, we get this quote from the head of his outfit, No Labels:

“[Bera] is the most important member of our Problem Solvers – of the entire group,” [No Labels chief Mark] McKinnon said. “He stepped up immediately as a freshman to take a leadership position. He was out early advocating on our big issues like No Budget, No Pay. And he immediately supported our strategic agenda, getting right into the working group. He is our poster congressman for No Labels.”

“No Budget, No Pay” is exactly what it sounds like: if House members refuse to pass a budget, they don’t get paid. Now, to be fair, I can see why a gang of professional bipartisanship fetishists would find this idea appealing: it adds an incentive to pass a routine bill, presumably with more bipartisanship. But the idea that this silly gimmick is one of their self-described big issues is incredible because it’s such a stupid idea if your goal is anything other than braindead populist grandstanding. For one thing, the loss of a couple days’ or weeks’ pay would seem to pale next to representatives infuriating the base, opening themselves up to a primary challenge and possibly ruining their careers. For another, most members of Congress are millionaires who would probably not even notice the money was missing. There’s the messy fact that the budget isn’t as important a document as the individual spending bills that Congress passes, so gaming the system by, say, passing a budget and then engineering a standoff over the Farm Bill would not trigger the bill. Does that mean we do this for all must-pass bills? Does anyone really think that this will make Congress better if we do it? And needless to say, it’s another “punish both sides” remedy even though Democrats have zero history of playing budget obstruction efforts to the bone as Republicans have, so even if it mattered, Republicans could quite conceivably use it as leverage. Additionally, I really have to question whether mechanisms predicated on forcing people who disagree to get along really actually work: it seems more likely that they will have the effect of creating resentment over the manipulation.

I have to admit to not following the No Labels agenda all that closely because centrists’ sentimentality obliterates any potential effectiveness there, but this agenda is even stupider than I would have thought. The notion that this is the best idea they have is some half-assed, crowdpleasing, know-nothing populist gimmick really is quite amazing, because even a cynic of bipartisan fantasies like me can easily think of a couple of better ones that they could use. For one thing, I could easily imagine campaign finance reform that ended the dark money structure having at least some positive effects from a pro-centrist perspective. Absent the dark money pool, red state Democrats–i.e. the type most willing to make centrist deals in most areas of policy–have a much better shot of hanging on. Ending the status quo where a congressperson’s every waking moment is spent cultivating donors could only help as well, and weakening the influence of ideological donors couldn’t hurt. But that would mean adopting one party’s political priority and investing in their success. So no. Advocating much stronger protection of voting rights and a better electoral system would seem to lead to more participation and better representation, but again, Democrats want that, so no. But even something like pledging to support the opponent of anyone who supports a government shutdown or a debt ceiling standoff would obviously just advantage Democrats, which is obviously unthinkable. Both parties are at fault, you know. So you have to do this even-handedly and procedurally, and here’s where the denial really fucking seeps through: how nice it must be to imagine that a mere procedural problem is all that needs to get fixed in order to get those bipartisan juices flowing. (Let’s not forget that President Obama seemed to subscribe to this theory until some point last year.) So, basically, No Labels has No Point For Existing, especially since their only other area of interest seems to be to tinker with electronic recordkeeping, the sort of fifth-tier issue that is so minor they might actually be able to get something done on it, but doesn’t exactly strike me as part of a bold new agenda. It’s damn hard not to agree with Bera’s Republican opponent here:

[Doug] Ose, who spent three terms in Congress through 2005, served on the board of the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership. Still, he criticized No Labels for not voluntarily disclosing its donors and said he suspects its real motivation is raising money to pay its executive.

“I think No Labels is a do-nothing group,” [Ose] said. “I think Congressman Bera has established a record as a do-nothing member. And I think they are both faking it and are a perfect match for our do-nothing Congress.”

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