I actually got a refund on my taxes this year, for the first time in three years. It was nice! But it had nothing to do with the Trump tax cuts. I just took the standard deduction, same as always (my wife and I did make enough to where it was worth it to calculate the difference by itemizing, but it was a few hundred dollars lower than the standard), and did the same tax bracket multiplication as always. Not owning a house makes it really simple. That we got a refund was nice, but as I do the taxes in our household every year, I would know if there were radical differences in what was going on in that department. The only real difference I could tell was that they axed an educational credit that we had used (there is a remaining one that you can take but it’s worse and we never qualify for it), so it’s fair to say that the Trump Tax “Cuts” increased our tax liability about $200 or so. Put that on your goddamn Twitter feed, Paul Ryan!

Anyway, it always seemed weird to me that Republicans thought that minor changes would really be noticed. Probably they are by their donors! But for normal people, no. People know around what they paid, but not the exact number. If it’s not radically different they’ll just put it in standard partisan terms that people have about taxes. More likely the Dems’ poll slump is more about that time when they took all the blame for a government shutdown that necessarily involved two parties (though which, admittedly, Democrats barely even tried to message).

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