As a commentator, from time to time I like to make predictions about things. But unlike most commentators, I always like to share with you how I did after the fact. It’s a twisted kind of fun for me, and it (hopefully) keeps the whole enterprise honest. Just wait for Dick Morris to write an article about why he is wrong about everything in the entire world…

So, here’s how I did (prediction post is here):

  • My electoral map was exactly correct, though it wound up resembling Nate Silver’s exactly by election day. I should note that when I put it up, Silver had Florida as slightly red, so I was at least slightly out on a limb.
  • I sure was off on the House number–I said the over/under was 15, where the Dems look to net about half that. Still, I made a number of specific calls too, for seats thought to be Republican-leaning: “Mack, West, Barrow, Tierney, Guinta, Hayworth, Canseco and DesJarlais [will] all go the Dems’ way.” And guess what. Aside from Scott “pro-life with an exception for personal embarrassment” DesJarlais, who merely proves that there is nothing Republicans won’t stomach to hold onto power, I got each and every one of these right. I was debating with myself whether or not to put Utah Democrat Tim Matheson on the list–I thought he was going to win despite awful polls just because he’s such a survivor, but I chickened out. Damn, that would have been an impressive prediction!
  • My guess for the Senate was essentially right: I said 55 seats for the Dems, and I was right. Shelley Berkeley lost, but due to some 80,000 Obama voters going for someone else. Lousy candidate, lousy campaign, and Berkeley was just no prize ideologically either (she is one of those Democrats who wants to shred the estate tax, incidentally). And she nearly won. This ought to convince Sen. Heller that he’s living on borrowed time, and that moving to the center is absolutely necessary if he wants to avoid catastrophe in six years. I don’t expect that Ryan-loving jerk to do so, though. Seriously, though, the Heitkamp win is incredible. Turns out those Pharos polls that everyone dismissed were exactly right–since they tracked everywhere else I was inclined to trust them, but since all the smart numbers people pooh-poohed them, I figured they must know something. She was closing the race near the end. Impressively done.
  • State level: “I’ll predict Democrat wins in the Oregon and Colorado Houses (both are presently split), the Michigan House, the Maine and Minnesota House and Senate, and the New York Senate just barely.” Got Michigan wrong–the Dems made big gains there but fell four seats short overall. The rest were on the money. Didn’t see New Hampshire coming, though I probably should have. And Democrats are a stones’ throw away from winning the Arizona and Pennsylvania Senates, just two seats down in either one, which is cool. “Democrats will narrowly hold onto the Wisconsin Senate and the Iowa Senate, thus respectively constraining Scott Walker and preventing an antigay Constitutional amendment.” Respectively, they narrowly didn’t and did. “I do believe Democrats will finally get to 2/3 here in California…” Yup. The only other miss was the Nevada Senate, which Democrats narrowly held onto. What does it mean to you? Well, aside from a bunch of states no longer dominated by wingnuts, I would fully expect Colorado and Minnesota to join the marriage equality club in short order.
  • Oh, and I also said this: “The four marriage equality initiatives will go in the direction of equality…” They did, which is something that not all that many people predicted.

And thus we close the book on this election cycle.

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  1. nswfm says:

    Bravo! Congratulations! Well done!

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