Nate Silver has his list of Senate projections up. Definitely worth your time if you’re a political obsessive like the rest of us. I have a few thoughts.

I must admit that I don’t really get what’s going on in Virginia. Kaine is running a few points below Obama in most polls, and given that he was a popular and reasonably successful governor, I’m unsure why he’s unable to break away from George Allen. Sometimes you hear that he’s penalized for his associations with Obama, but the state likes Obama, and I find it hard to imagine there are very many Obama-Allen ticket-splitters out there. If anything, Dems are underrated there.

Also, this is worth saying to people panicking over Ed Linda McMahon in Connecticut:

Undecided Senate voters tend to reflect the partisan makeup of their states. A few cycles ago Tom Coburn and his Democratic challenger Brad Carson were tied in pre-election Oklahoma polling, something like 42-42. Coburn ended up winning 53-42. I don’t have a name for that phenomenon, but the same thing happened last cycle, when Rand Paul was roughly tied with Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky late in the 2010 cycle, only to gobble up all the undecideds and win 56-44. [...]

If my theory holds, the Democratic advantage in Connecticut and Massachusetts should be enough to push our candidates over the 50 percent mark. Likewise, Republicans should be able to pull through in Indiana and probably North Dakota, though the latter is small enough that Democrat Heidi Heitkamp can potential break through with strong retail politicking.

I suspect that Chris Murphy’s numbers are weak because of a very long and divisive primary, which as it happens was against a female candidate, just like the general election. I suspect McMahon’s political career has peaked, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the next round of polling had him up by seven or so.

Anyway, lots of things breaking to the benefit of Team Blue at this moment in time.