In an interview last month, Graves pointed out to Salon that Bachmann has benefited in the past two cycles from third-party challengers who have disproportionately syphoned votes from the Democratic candidate. Minnesota Public Radio political writer Bon Collins called Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson  – who took over 10 percent of the vote in 2008 — “Michele Bachmann’s best friend” because he paved the way for her reelection. Bachmann won by just three points that year. In 2010, her margin was bigger, but it was a wave election for Republicans and Bachmann had managed to avoid major controversy ahead of the election. That year, Anderson, who ran again, took about 6 percent of the vote.

This year, there is no major third party candidate, giving Bachmann her first head-to-head race since her election. Tom Horner, a former gubernatorial candidate from the Independence Party, which has mostly gotten on board with Graves’ campaign, told the St. Cloud Times that the lack of a third candidate is significant. “I think that’s going to make a huge difference. It’s the opportunity to compare and contrast two candidates, head to head,” he said.

Add this in with the real possibility that Paul Ryan gets unseated (grown larger by his selection as the GOP VP candidate, which will inevitably take his attention away from the district), and the serious challenge faced by top hatemonger Steve King in a new swing district, and it’s entirely possible that the big Tea Party figures of this Congress could mostly be gone next year. Wonder what that would look like.