I think Eliot Mess is onto something:

Former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) suggested current Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is quietly encouraging talk of him as a presidential candidate in 2016 as “a way to build and accentuate power,” the Politicker reports.

Said Spitzer: “Clearly you have somebody out there in Andrew’s case, I presume, who’s sparking the conversation. In his case it’s his dad. It’s a good co-conspirator in this game. On the other hand, you pretend that you’re not paying any attention, you’re only going to focus on doing the job because you don’t want to seem to want it.”

He added: “But you want the chatter to continue because the chatter… is beneficial. It builds support, it permits people to join the team, it shows interest. In politics people measure you by what you think you will be next. And so the chatter is a way to build and accentuate power.”

I generally don’t like to write about elections so far out, but since Obama vs. Romney isn’t exactly the most exciting thing going, why not?

It does seem clear that Andrew Cuomo is positioning himself for a possible bid, and his record to date suggests that he’s going to work to appeal to the media, to financial industry folks, and other business types. He worked with those people in passing marriage equality in New York, and having a political career in New York means coming to some sort of understanding with finance (as having a political career in Texas means having some sort of accord with oilmen). His relatively conservative line on taxes is a reflection of this, as is his mild antagonism toward public sector unions, which goes over big with that crowd. He’ll have a hard time getting labor support after his pension reforms should he run. While the extent to which being from New York is still seen as “too liberal” to the rest of the country (it didn’t dog Hillary Clinton one bit, but she was a fake New Yorker to begin with), Cuomo has been pretty effective at portraying himself as pragmatic and nonideological, and is very popular as well. One could easily imagine him being the establishment candidate/frontrunner in 2016. (I’m assuming Hillary Clinton is telling the truth and doesn’t want to run.)

A Cuomo candidacy would, however, likely play out in much the same way that other East Coast technocrat candidacies have–well-financed and “centrist” in outlook and rhetoric, winning handily in the New Hampshire primary but struggling in Iowa. There certainly would be an opening for a more folksy, populist, and forthrightly progressive candidate, someone who would clean up in Iowa. Elizabeth Warren would probably be a contender for this role should she win in November, but I’m not sure she’d be the optimal one. Warren in 2016 would be better-qualified than Obama was in 2008–bureaucratic experience such as hers is heavily underrated but is often extremely helpful for presidents wanting to exert control over the bureaucracy, and she’d have more time in the Senate than the current president did–but it would be akin to the tendency Republicans have of promoting talent too soon that Daniel Larison always harps on. (My guess is that she’d be a likely VP nominee for several candidates, though.) The best choice for the folksy populist role in 2012 would have to be Sherrod Brown, who offers several advantages to progressives. He’s quite a bit more liberal than Cuomo, but he comes from a state that is not known for liberalism, so he could pull off the John Edwards strategy that Edwards never quite could. He’s a skilled politician and campaigner who beat a reasonably popular incumbent like a drum in 2006, and he is in a strong position for re-election in 2012 despite enormous outside money arrayed against him. He has a ton of experience and a strong record. He’d likely be a stronger general election candidate anyway. The money component would be tricky–Cuomo would have lots, but Warren and Obama (in 2008) both managed to raise lots of cash on a mostly grassroots basis. Brown might be able to do that too. Progressives ought to try to push him toward a run.

I honestly have no idea what direction Republicans will go in 2016–in the event that Mitt Romney wins, obviously, they’ll know. If he doesn’t, where they go next depends on the reaction to that loss. By 2016, some economic recovery is inevitable no matter how stubbornly our fiscal and monetary policies frustrate it, and that combined with demographic trends will make Tea Party politics considerably less appealing to the public than they are now. Whether any of this abates the Tea Party hold on the party I have no idea. So I couldn’t hazard a guess.