Bob Shrum has written a column with a very plausible narrative for how Michele Bachmann could wind up with the GOP nomination. The gist of it is that she maintains her lead in Iowa, exceeds expectations and finishes a strong second in New Hampshire (where Romney is supposed to dominate), and then fights a bitter battle with Romney in South Carolina, winning by lambasting the former Massachusetts governor for his flip flops. It’s an interesting piece, and it concludes with this:

In the fall campaign, a far feather on the right-wing just won’t fly with the electorate. So for the GOP hit squad, Bachmann’s problem isn’t migraine headaches. A Republican establishment that exploited and empowered the politics of alienation and paranoia now views Bachmann with alarm as charismatic, the champion of the embittered, crazy to many, irresistible to some. For Republicans, Bachmann’s a big political headache — and the Romney aspirin and Perry Tylenol may not provide a cure.

Rick Perry is the big X factor here, and who knows, maybe Palin will still jump in? But let’s assume Palin doesn’t for the sake of this post–if she does, she’d probably doom Bachmann by splintering her support. My guess is that Bachmann will be able to dispatch Perry if he gets in. I could be very wrong about this, but I don’t see Perry as an outstanding political talent. He inherited his job after Dubya was elected president, and kept it largely due to the state’s Republican inertia. His electoral victories have rarely been impressive (especially this one), and until this year he’s seemed completely unambitious, content to merely hold the job he inherited without doing much to notice or be talked about. Which is to say, he’s sort of like a political Jay Leno, and interest in his candidacy this year has had little to do with him pushing it so much as him fitting the profile that desperate GOP operatives want to fill. He doesn’t really have experience in making voters and volunteers really excited about him and what he wants to do. Or the general public, either, as his approval rating is weak at best. Meanwhile, Bachmann has proven very, very good at all of that. Her position strengthens by the day, and she’s quickly become Romney’s biggest threat. Again, I could be wrong about this–maybe Perry will turn out to be a mondo campaigner, burning the roofs off of every barn in Iowa. But there’s no real evidence to believe that now, and quite a bit to suggest he won’t. My guess is Perry winds up more like Phil Gramm than George W. Bush with the GOP primary electorate.

Regardless, Bachmann’s success as a hopeful is pretty stunning, far better than I figured it would be. I think that the establishment attacks her at their own peril, as such attacks can often be turned around to elicit sympathy and support that might not otherwise be offered–Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton both did so deftly, and I suspect Bachmann would easily be able to do it too. Bachmann would also be the first female major-party presidential candidate if nominated, which could be a strong pull for Republicans as they really like beating the Democrats out for milestones like that, at least in the interactions I’ve had with them. So Bachmann is in a pretty good position at the moment, though I doubt this will reduce the walking political vulnerability that is her husband.

Anyway, I can’t think of a better song to summarize the situation than this: