(0 comments)Gherald is pretty dead-set on believing that the “Cash for Clunkers” program was a wasteful, ineffective boondoggle. Leaving aside my baseline argument against that,* I wanted to post in a decent explanation of one of the primary reasons I consider the program’s outcome to be largely effective:
Was there waste? Sure. Could we have pumped in money to another sector to boost spending? Sure. But when we ponder what appears to be a decent nudge to improving perceptions about the economy, I think the signs are positive and we probably even got a pretty good bang for our buck.For my money, though, the uncounted benefit of the program has been its effect on the intangible economic force John Maynard Keynes calls “animal spirits.” For weeks, the news and blogosphere have been loaded with images of busy car salespeople explaining that they were selling out of the Ford Focus (when did you think you’d hear that?). Car shoppers appeared on camera with an acquisitive gleam in their eyes that has been in hiding since 2007. And we were treated to the vision of a federal stimulus program that actually seemed to be working. If you wanted to persuade consumers that the economy really is starting to recover, you couldn’t buy more convincing advertising.
Animal spirits, by their nature, aren’t easily measured. But Tuesday’s consumer confidence survey results did register a far greater rebound in optimism than economists expected. (The survey was taken in early to mid-August, when it was becoming clear that Cash for Clunkers would burn through another $2 billion, easy.) Interestingly, consumers say they believe that the economy is still in terrible shape. But their faith in the future has risen to levels not seen since before the recession began. Faith doesn’t easily yield to a cost-benefit analysis, but It’s hard to overstate its economic importance, as Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof points out in this MoneyWatch.com video.
Obviously, Cash for Clunkers didn’t account entirely for the jump in consumer confidence, and there’s no guarantee that it won’t fade again, especially if unemployment refuses to fall. And while confidence can’t cause a recovery, a recovery can’t happen without it. So to the extent that the clunkers program gave Americans a reason to believe that things can eventually return to normal and to have some faith that government has a handle on recovery, it was a pretty good investment.
* – I.e., The program was designed to pump billions of dollars into the economy to boost spending and consumer and business sentiment. It did just that without producing any significant negative externalities. Ergo, CFC’s outcome doesn’t meet the definition of “failure“.
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Well said. One of the foremost factors pushing investment bubbles, mass panics, divestments, and market slumps that devolve into Depressions (not just Great Recessions) is nothing more complex than Perception of individuals participating in the market (buying or selling). If people believe something is a risk, if they believe an economy is on shakey ground, their belief alone will make it so, through myriad hesitations in investment and spending.
This Keynesian principle has played a major role in every large market retraction since he articulated these principles. (Not that he invented it; he just pegged it correctly, it seems, and we've been able to track current and past trends from that perspective ever since.) Economists know this. In addition to actual cash infusions into economies, which demonstrate, literally, that cash is flowing, the other great Stimulus is the psychological perception that it is easy/ok/safe to not only invest, but *spend*. This is especially critical in a consumer-spending oriented market such as we have. The CFC program spurred this perception marvelously well, and its value as a psychological impetus cannot be underestimated.
Except, of course, by people fixated on "cut taxes! don't spend!". Which is, in fact, the exact counterfactual to recovery from a crisis like we've experienced. *
* a complete non-sequitur here: in an earlier exchange re what economic indicators really marked recovery and wise sheparding through this crisis, I was offline and unable to respond to some particular comments/questions from Gherald in this regard. Yet he asked a good econ question from a high-level perspective (to the effect of, what market indications *should he be looking at in order to gauge where we are in recovery (or not) ) -- and I hope to be able to return to these conversations soon.
- great grist for thought-mill you get going on here, Grape-Man. :)